Bitcoin Catalysts

Bitcoin has a slew of catalysts on the horizon. The first three are increasing demand/buyers.

  1.  As I’ve written about before Microstrategy, the public company that owns the most bitcoin is selling $750 million worth of new stock to buy more bitcoin. 
  1. El Salvador, the first country to make bitcoin legal tender, is on their way to selling $1 billion in bitcoin bonds. $500 million will be used to buy bitcoin directly.   $500 million will be used to buy bitcoin miners. 
  1. At least 7 Bitcoin Spot ETF’s have been filed in the USA. This in itself is not new. There have been many filed in the past that have been rejected, for no good reason. The first one filed in this latest round has been pushed off by the SEC and opened for comments by the public, a delay tactic. But they can’t delay forever. They have to give a final ruling in January 2024. Many other countries around the world have bitcoin spot ETFs active. There is no good reason to not approve one. One will eventually be approved in the USA either now or later. Once that happens there will be a lot of new buyers of bitcoin. Currently it is rather difficult to buy bitcoin with many funds, 401k’s, IRA, regular brokerage account. But when you are able to buy a bitcoin spot ETF in any of those funds with money you already have in those accounts that just opens a lot more money to buy bitcoin. 

The 4th catalyst is a supply reducing catalyst. The next bitcoin halving is currently going to happen on April 17th, 2024. Bitcoin miners are rewarded for protecting the bitcoin network with “new” bitcoin. They have to sell a lot of these bitcoin to pay for their electricity costs. They currently receive 6.25 BTC per block. In April 2024 it will drop to 3.125 BTC. Since there will be less bitcoin being sold by miners, if the demand remains the same it’s likely bitcoin will appreciate in value. 

While bitcoin is very volatile it should be remembered that the goal of bitcoin is to not be volatile. It is currently volatile due to all the people speculating on its future value. Some people bought it 6 months ago and it’s doubled in price so they are selling because they have made 2x their initial money. In the long run bitcoin’s price will only go up as the value of goods grows. It will only go up with inflation. That is the end goal of bitcoin.

Tesla Should Accept Bitcoin NOW!

As both a Tesla shareholder and a Bitcoin holder, I think it’s time Tesla starts accepting bitcoin for payments again.

Tesla currently holds hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin on their balance sheet. 

Tesla accepted bitcoin for Tesla purchases for a very short time in 2021 but then quit accepting it due to concerns about the emissions from bitcoin mining.
His “rules” laid out above in a tweet June 13th, 2021 was that Tesla would resume accepting Bitcoin when bitcoin mining was using greater than 50% green energy. It has been clearly shown by the Bitcoin Mining Council that bitcoin mining is 59.9% green! 

“Based on this data, the global bitcoin mining industry’s sustainable electricity mix has improved marginally to 59.9% and remains one of the most sustainable industries globally,” the report stated. – Bitcoin Mining Council

Direct link to Bitcoin Mining Council Q2 2023 report. 

This is well above the goal set by Elon for Tesla of 50%. Because of this, I think Tesla should immediately start accepting Bitcoin for payments again.


Of course Elon could be waiting for “reasons”.

One might be that he expects whenever Tesla starts accepting Bitcoin to have a small flood of buyers. He might be waiting for this until a time that he perceives that he needs a small demand boost? This is my only speculation on why he hasn’t started accepting bitcoin yet.I hope Elon will have a chat with Michael Saylor (Chairman of Microstrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin and also an instrumental figure in the Bitcoin Mining Council) soon!

So Elon, what are you waiting for?

1% Allocation to Bitcoin – An Asymmetric Bet

Bitcoin represents an asymmetric bet. It is one of the few assets that has the potential to 50x.

I think it’s smart to invest 1% of your net worth into bitcoin. If you have $100k in investable assets in your 401k or bank account, you could consider buying $1,000 worth of Bitcoin. With Bitcoin costing $29,749.64 for 1 bitcoin as I’m writing this $1,000 would get you 0.03302561. If bitcoin was to hit $100k that’d be worth $3,302. If Bitcoin goes to $1 million/coin you’d have $33,025.

Once you accumulate a higher net worth you can actually bet a larger amount to bitcoin, say 2%-5%. The reason is you have the safety of your core position of assets in case your asymmetric bet goes poorly. If your core position is $500k and you invest $5k or even $10k, in the chance your asymmetric bet goes to $0 you still have $490k in your core position, which is still a strong position to be in. 

Nassim Nicholas Taleb shares the concept of asymmetric bets. Safe/low risk positions in your investments act as an anchor while as well as big/high risk investments give you the opportunity to “hit it big”. Bitcoin would fall into this big payoff/high risk category. 


But as noted, if you have a very safe base of index funds as your safe/low risk position, it might make sense to take some risk, but only with what you are willing to lose! Most people think they are willing to take more risk than they actually are. Once a position drops 50% people often sell. You need to consider what you will do if your asymmetric bet drops 50% BEFORE it happens. If your answer is “sell” the asymmetric bet probably wasn’t something you should have done in the first place!. If the answer is buy, and you are sure you will do that, perhaps you should consider the asymmetric bet. Personally this is the position I was in all of 2022. I was buying bitcoin all the way from $60k down to $15k. It is now at $29k and I am just a little in the green, but at the start of 2023 I was 50% in the negative on my bitcoin holdings!

The majority of my personal portfolio is invested in safe index funds. But I do have 2 potential asymmetric bets with a smaller portion of my portfolio, Tesla and Bitcoin. 

If you’d like to learn more about bitcoin you can read plenty of my posts. 

Nobody Wants to Buy Bitcoin… Yet

Bitcoin Vs. Cryptocurrencies

What Problem Does Bitcoin Solve?

KPMG – The Bitcoin Narrative is Changing

Silver – Buying and Premiums

I bought my first silver 1 oz coin just over a year ago. I ended up paying $24.25 from a local coin shop. At the time the silver spot price was $19.43. This means I paid a premium of $4.82 or 24.81%. This was actually the lowest premium I paid for quite a while until November 2022 when I found some sales on www.SDBullion.com

By that time the silver spot price had risen to $21.43 and I paid $25.97 or $4.54 premium which was a 21% premium. The high premiums were partially because these were on sale. I was paying these 20%+ premiums because the stock market was doing poorly and people were selling out of stocks and buying into precious metals because they were seen as safe. 

Today, the stock market has been roaring, most of the year. The S&P 500 is up 17% this year as I am writing this. When the stock market is going up, people often sell gold and silver, and bonds, and buy into the stock market. 


When people aren’t interested in something is when you should consider buying it, if you are going to. 

The best deal I found was these 1 oz Golden State mint generic silver coins. The silver spot price was 22.84 and they were selling for a $2 premium, $24.84! Or 8.7% premium. This is just a little more than the first silver I bought over 1 year ago when the spot price was $19.43 or $3.41 lower than it is today. $24.84 is also lower than I paid in November 2022!

This is a trend I’ve watched over the last year. The spot price for gold and silver has risen but the premiums have actually fallen more! This makes it possible for you to buy the same amount of silver or gold for less than was possible a year ago, despite the higher spot price. 

The 2 websites I check frequently are https://sdbullion.com/deals . Specifically their “Doc’s deals” page which is linked here. The 2nd is https://monumentmetals.com/deals.html?page=1 Monument Metals – Deals page also. Basically every metals dealer has a “deals” page. And when you are looking for the cheapest premium that is often where it is. 
Other good sites are JM bullion (although usually more expensive) or as mentioned at the start Golden State Mint


The deals change weekly. It’s even possible that premiums or spot price continue to go down in the future! Buyer beware!


Read this before considering metals and know why you are buying physical metals, similar to any purchase or investment.

Microstrategy $750 Million to Buy MORE Bitcoin!

Microstrategy is a large software analytics company. It is also the company which holds the most Bitcoin. Microstrategy currently holds 152,800 bitcoins.

This is 0.73% of all Bitcoin that will ever be created! There will be only 21 million Bitcoin ever.

It’s also estimated that perhaps 4 million bitcoin have been “lost” with old computers that people have lost so that means 152,800/17 million = 0.9% of all Bitcoin that will ever be available! Only 19 million bitcoin have been issued. The final 2 million will be issued over the next 120 years, so that means there are only about 21-2-4 = 15 million bitcoin available for purchase today. So Microstrategy owns over 1% of all Bitcoin available today!

And they are buying more!

MicroStrategy is planning to raise up to $750 million via a stock sale and says it may use the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin- Cointelegraph

The reason Microstrategy is buying more bitcoin is because they see it as the supreme ownership asset. In a world where more fiat currency (USD, Euros, Yen) are created everyday something that is ultimately scarce is valuable!

You can watch the Chairman of Microstrategy, Michael Saylor, discuss bitcoin here, for 1 hour, or if you are really interested he discusses history, energy and bitcoin here for many hours. I watched the hours and hours podcast as it’s fascinating!
This development, Microstrategy, buying more and more bitcoin, is a signal in the noise of everyday life where people are talking about if you should buy bitcoin, or gold, or stocks. There are things that are signals and things that are noise. This is a signal. KPMG putting out a paper about bitcoin being ESG friendly is also a signal

You should watch for signals and act accordingly!

Remember! Don’t FOMO buy thousands and thousands of dollars of Bitcoin unless you are ready to temporarily lose 50% or more.

Don’t invest any more into Bitcoin than you are willing to lose. While I think it will be fine, it’s always possible something wild could happen and it could go to $0 (I doubt this but keeping all possibilities open). 

KPMG – The Bitcoin Narative is Changing

https://advisory.kpmg.us/content/dam/advisory/en/pdfs/2023/bitcoins-role-esg-imperative.pdfKPMG is considered one of the “Big Four” accounting firms, it is the 4th biggest, but still pretty big in the grand scheme of things.KPMG recently released a document, linked above and here, sharing how Bitcoin fulfills all 3 values of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) investing. This is a pretty big change in the narrative about bitcoin in the media compared to the erroneous FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) that had been being spread and is still being spread about Bitcoin’s “high” energy usage. That is disputed in this article, and elsewhere. Bitcoin has a small overall energy usage compared to many other industries. It also has a greater than 50% usage of renewable energy, which is the highest of any industry in the world. There are even bitcoin mining applications that can have negative emissions such as using methane from a landfill to power the bitcoin miner. If that methane was just released into the environment, like it is at many landfills now, that methane is 80x worse for the environment than CO2.I encourage everyone to learn about bitcoin. You can read my older posts. You can also find many bitcoin books from my reading list.As Jason Maier said in his book “A Progressive’s Case for Bitcoin” – “You don’t know any intelligent person who has studied Bitcoin for 100 hours and thinks it’s a bad idea.”I encourage you to read his book.  

Isn’t The Bitcoin Guy in Jail?

I was recently in the hospital (that part of the story isn’t important) and had a Bitcoin book, A Progressive’s Case for Bitcoin: A Path Toward a More Just, Equitable, and Peaceful World, out on my desk to read while I was sitting around doing nothing. One of the nurses asked me if I “Was into Bitcoin?”. I naturally said “yes” enthusiastically and asked her if she wanted to talk about it. Her first comment was “Isn’t the bitcoin guy in jail?” I explained to her that “no there is no ‘bitcoin guy’” The guy who is in jail, who I’m assuming she meant Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), although we didn’t clarify that, I explained to her, was a fraudster but not directly linked with bitcoin. I explained to her that Sam and his company FTX were more or less committing fraud on a level similar to Enron. She seemed to understand that. 

Fighting basic narrative errors about bitcoin like this is important for bitcoin adoption. There is so much false news and when people don’t really have that much interest, this is the type of error they can make. 

I also got to mention to her that there is a limit of 21 million bitcoin ever and it fixes the problem of governments stealing our savings via inflation. She did like that! She mentioned that she had a “lot of cash” and “wished the government would stop stealing things”. Not the most technical conversation, but I’m hoping that by.

1 . removing the connection of SBF/FTX to bitcoin and

2. Connecting the idea of bitcoin saving you from government created inflation, she might be more open to bitcoin the next time she hears about it. 

She also mentioned that she “isn’t tech savvy” but somehow mentioned she has Venmo. You can buy bitcoin on Venmo (it’s not the favorite platform for the “hardcore” bitcoin folks but it works). So I did mention to her that she would be able to buy it there pretty easily.

What Problem Does a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Solve?

If you read my previous post you will learn what problem bitcoin is trying to solve. But there is another thing that governments love to talk about when anyone mentions bitcoin or cryptocurrencies. To be clear on the difference between bitcoin and cryptocurrencies read this. The thing Governments love to bring up is a Central Bank Digital Currency or a CBDC for short.  

What is a CBDC and what benefit does it have? The most important thing to know about a CBDC is it is 100% Government controlled, just like money today. It has no limit on how much of it there can be.  Because of this they can create more new CBDC everyday and reduce the value of the ones you own.  This is inflation and that is the problem that bitcoin solves by having a limit that is 21 million bitcoin ever. The fact that  CBDC does not have a limit, means it is not a substitute for bitcoin and you should not be fooled by anyone on tv, or anywhere, saying a CBDC can replace bitcoin and now we don’t need bitcoin.

One thing a CBDC may do is either make settlements at the store faster or international settlements faster. Today international settlements usually go through a company like Western Union.  It is very expensive to send money out of the country. Visa and Mastercard process most payments via their credit system and charge between 1.5%-4%  to the businesses using their network. A CBDC could remove the need for Visa and Mastercard and for Western Union. Basically it could remove any intermediaries as a CBDC would be infinitely and immediately traceable. While to me all our money seems digital and traceable anyway, a CBDC would make it even more easily so. There may be a push from a government to use it as a form of punishment or denial of purchase for certain things which would be another option that opens up even more with the abilities of a CBDC. For example the government could say that buying meat is bad or buying more than 1000g/ month of meat is illegal and could limit your CBDC credit card to purchases of meat, or anything they wanted. 

The main point I wanted to help people understand with that post is that a CBDC certainly does not do anything that would replace bitcoin or reduce inflation and could even potentially be used to control purchases by individuals.

Consider buying a little Bitcoin!

What Problem Does Bitcoin Solve?

To understand the reason behind why some people (like me) buy bitcoin you need to think about the problem we think bitcoin is trying to solve.  When you use a government currency, like USD, the Government can effectively steal value from your bank account via money printing. How does this work?

To understand that you need to understand what the point of money is. Money is just a measurement of the value of something.  We have all been trained that the value of things goes up over time because the price goes up over time. But just because a house rises in value by $100k over 5 years,  does not mean its intrinsic value has risen. It’s the same house providing the same amount of shelter.  It really shouldn’t gain value. What has really happened is the money,  used to measure the value of the house, has lost value! It’d be like if you used a tape measure with 12 inches to 1 foot  to measure a board and then you changed the tape measure to use 13 inches to 1 foot,  where the foot is still the same length but each inch is smaller so you have “more inches”. But is the 1 foot board actually any more useful or longer if you use 13 shorter inches or 12 inches to 1 foot? No.  This is how the government confuses us. They print more money and then our houses “go up” in value,  but it’s because the measuring stick is changing.  Why does the government do this though? They do it because that’s how they pay for the $1 trillion to $4 trillion budget deficit the Government has each year. 

In WW1, while we were on the gold standard (every dollar was supposedly able to be converted back to gold at a bank), the government had to sell “war bonds” to pay for the war.  This at least provided a little link between Americans turning over money for what they thought was a just cause. If people didn’t buy the bonds the government couldn’t pay for the war. 

Since the US dollar was removed from the gold standard in 1971, the Government has had no restrictions on how much money they can print. The US government is able to fund any war ad infinitum via money printing. When this new money is printed the government uses it to buy good (ships,  tanks,  steel, sometimes roads,  etc). Since they have unlimited purchasing power they can keep printing money until they can pay for what they need.  Meanwhile,  the average person might be unable to buy a new truck because the price of steel was pushed up by the government demanding 200 billion tons of steel for planes and warships.

When thinking about if you should buy bitcoin this is the fundamental issue you need to consider, how is my purchasing power being diluted via inflation? 

Since bitcoin has a limited supply (21 million) as more US dollars are printed a single bitcoin’s value, measured in USD, or any other currency, will continue to go up. 

In fact bitcoin recently hit all time highs, when measured in Argentine pesos,  Lebanese pounds and Venezuelan bolivars

This is due to those countries experiencing extremely high levels of inflation 50%-100% a year.  I can’t even imagine what that would be like to live in. At 100% inflation,  or even 50% you need a raise every paycheck! Your money would lose 1% of its value every week at 50% inflation.

While it seems like high inflation only happens in “far away” places with bad Governments that’s not the case. It has happened thousands of times in history

We, every person in the world, is in a fight with their own government to keep as much of the value they create as they can.  The government explicitly taxes you, which we can debate but at least it is obvious.  But the government also stealthy steals value from your bank account or savings via inflation and money printing that you have no control over. 

Because in the USA inflation has been a relatively small issue (1%-3%) for most of the last 25 years most people in the USA haven’t thought about wealth preservation much.  Now that we’ve seen 10% inflation it’s new to people and they aren’t sure how to protect their purchasing power! A bond paying 5% is really losing 5% a year to inflation if inflation is 10%.

I know bitcoin is volatile but the inherent properties of it (ultimate scarcity, 21 million total coins ever), make it the best chance we have ever had to get out of the system and protect our wealth. If bitcoin doesn’t succeed then we will have lost every opportunity to preserve value!

 I think that is a cause worth supporting, by buying and holding Bitcoin. And you’re not just supporting it, but you’re protecting your wealth! 

I have written politicians and blog posts trying to encourage people to understand this while bitcoin is relatively cheap ($30k). I know once it is $50k or $100k more people will have Fear Of Missing Out and will buy in which could happen in the next year or 2. It’s best to learn about bitcoin when it’s price isn’t rising like crazy and you aren’t having FOMO. 

If you’ve wondered this last year or 2 how to avoid losing value to inflation I’d enjoy talking to you more about bitcoin. I only recommend 1% of your net worth in it to start.  So if you have $100,000 of net worth you can just buy $1,000 worth of bitcoin. That’s a small risk to be part of a monetary revolution that just might pay off. 

Bitcoin For Everybody – Saylor Academy

I stumbled upon the Saylor Academy Professional Development course, “PRDV151: Bitcoin for Everybody”. Saylor Academy is associated with Michael Saylor, CEO of Microstrategy, which was the first public company to put Bitcoin on its balance sheet. “Saylor Academy is a nonprofit initiative working since 2008 to offer free and open online courses to all who want to learn. We offer nearly 100 full-length courses at the college and professional levels, each of which is available right now — at your pace, on your schedule, and free of cost.” Saylor Academy has free courses on a lot of things, English as a 2nd Language, Math, Politics, etc. 

While there is some overlap between Michael Saylor and his non-profit and bitcoin, in general it is just a learning website which also happens to have a Bitcoin course. Despite having read many articles about bitcoin for the past 4 years, I decided to take this course. WOW! I learned a lot. The course is free and signing up for Saylor academy is free. I am going to link a few of the articles that I found most interesting from the  courses below as well as some of the most impactful quotes that I got from each article for people who don’t want to read all the articles. Many of the articles are also available from their original sources in spoken format so that would make them easier to listen to while driving instead of taking an hour to read them.
A lot of the information is more about the history of money, how US dollars came to be the World Reserve Currency and other interesting history. Later information gets into the history of bitcoin as well as why it makes good money. I highly recommend taking this course for anyone who is skeptical about Bitcoin. 

Unit 1: Bitcoin Economics

The Bullish Case for Bitcoin -Vijay Boyapati

PoW is Efficient – Dan Held

Everything requires energy (first law of thermodynamics). Claiming that one usage of energy is more or less wasteful than another is completely subjective since all users have paid market rate to utilize that electricity.

Unit 2: Bitcoin Investment

Bitcoin is Not Backed by Nothing -Parker Lewis

“What backs the dollar (or euro or yen, etc.) in the first place? When attempting to answer this question, the retort is most often that the dollar is backed by the government, the military (guys with guns), or taxes. However, the dollar is backed by none of these. Not the government, not the military and not taxes. Governments tax what is valuable; a good is not valuable because it is taxed. Similarly, militaries secure what is valuable, not the other way around. And a government cannot dictate the value of its currency; it can only dictate the supply of its currency.

Venezuela, Argentina, and Turkey all have governments, militaries and the authority to tax, yet the currencies of each have deteriorated significantly over the past five years. While it’s not sufficient to prove the counterfactual, each is an example that contradicts the idea that a currency derives its value as a function of government.”

Bitcoin Cannot be Banned – Parker Lewis

In fact, it posits that bitcoin works so well that it will threaten the incumbent government-run monopolies on money in which case governments will regulate it out of existence to eliminate the threat. Think about the claim that governments will ban bitcoin as conditional logic. Is bitcoin functional as money? If not, governments have nothing to ban. If yes, then governments will attempt to ban bitcoin.

Unit 3: Bitcoin History and Philosophy

Honestly, I didn’t find Unit 3 very interesting. It was full of a lot of history and details that are rather dry reading to me at the moment. While it probably provides useful history, it’s just not very exciting and isn’t completely necessary to understand Bitcoin. 

Unit 4: Bitcoin Technology

THE GREAT PLAGUE OF SHITCOINERY – THIBAUD MARÉCHAL

Under the fiat monetary system, the cost of currency issuance is close to zero, which is very profitable for the national issuers, as there is no longer any limit on the quantity of money that can be created, further shrinking the value of the existing currency in circulation, and annihilating the purchasing power of the currency holders — people like you and me.

Unit 5: Bitcoin in Practice

Unit 5 is relatively short compared to the other units. It is a lot more practical. Here is how Saylor Academy describes unit 5. 

“Now that you have some base awareness of Bitcoin, we will cover basic instruction on putting Bitcoin into practice in this unit. This includes acquiring Bitcoin, using a Bitcoin wallet and the Lightning Network, privacy and security practices, and avoiding common pitfalls, scams, and mistakes.”

This is probably a very useful unit for people who don’t have a lot of familiarity with how Bitcoin works.